A Vacancy on the Court

What's new?

Today (June 29, 2008) marks my first return to this site since last July 31. Apologies for the absence. I have just retired from 39 years as a professor at Arizona State University, but only now have I found time to get back to this. The future for the site, however, is a good one. It will be a high priority for me in my retirement work phase. By the end of July, I hope to have the voting data available and analyzed for this past term of the Court. Following that I will assess the positions of McCain and Obama regarding appointments to the Court and provide scenarios for how the composition of the Court might change in the next four years. Not affecting the content, I will also be busy reconstructing the architecture of this site. That should involve establishing a blog and providing better opportunity for input from any of you.

Welcome

In his appointments of John Roberts as Chief Justice and Samuel Alito, Jr. to replace the pivotal Sandra O'Connor, President Bush has succeeded in appointing two solid conservatives to the Court, insuring a more common conservative outcome in 5-4 decisions. The pivotal position relinquished by O'Connor has now passed to Anthony Kennedy, who will join the conservative bloc of Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, and Alito more often than not (15 out of 20 occasions in 2006-07 in which a 5-4 vote divided the conservative bloc from the more liberal bloc of Stevens, Ginsburg, Souter, and Breyer. Click on the Justices link if you wish to see voting data from the Court's 2006-07 term.

While it is possible President Bush's Court appointments are not finished, the November 2006 elections relinquished Republican control of the Senate to the Democrats. With the two Senate Independents joining the Democrats, a bare 51-49 majority is now set to contest any aspect of President Bush's policies and nominations. Samuel Alito gained confirmation by a 58-42 margin, with only four Democrats voting to affirm. The continuing low approval rating of President Bush's performance along with a Democratic Senate will pose problems for any future appointments that might arise. The potential for controversy in the nomination setting is now even higher than when the Alito nomination went forward.

In the meantime, John Roberts heads into his third year as the 17th Chief Justice of the United States. At 50 years of age, he was certainly not the youngest appointed-the first Chief Justice, John Jay, who was only 43 at the time of his taking office, and John Marshall, who was just 45. Roberts does have the potential, however, to be one of the longest serving chief justices. John Marshall served 34 years and Roger Taney, though appointed at the age of 59, served for 28. The median tenure of the 17 chief justices is only 10 years.

This site has been created to help citizens, students, journalists, academics, and politicians alike understand and anticipate the Supreme Court appointment process as it unfolds. The links to the left walk you through the different stages of the vacancy, nomination, and confirmation processes. Please feel free to make suggestions about how this site can better serve any of you by submitting comments from the FAQS page. Also, consult the FAQs page for answers about questions involving the current situation. Substantial changes and additions will be made to this site now that two vacancies on the Court have occurred. Please check back periodically for new information.

Last update: June 29, 2008